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The euro has remained above parity with the U.S. dollar since September 2022, but rising tensions with Russia and potential U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump could threaten this stability. Economists predict the euro may return to parity by 2025, influenced by U.S. monetary policy and global trade uncertainties. The outlook remains volatile, with factors such as tariffs and economic responses from Europe and China playing crucial roles in the euro"s future trajectory.
At the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, Apollo CEO Marc Rowan highlighted a U.S. "industrial renaissance" driving significant capital demand, fueled by government spending on infrastructure and technology. Panelists noted a resurgence in capital raising, particularly in energy and data centers, with expectations for robust M&A activity in 2025 as economic conditions improve.
Nvidia"s upcoming earnings report is generating significant anticipation, overshadowing geopolitical tensions, including Russia"s warning of a nuclear response to Ukraine"s missile strikes. U.S. markets showed resilience, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing higher, while Qualcomm projected $22 billion in additional annual revenue by 2029. Investors are keenly focused on Nvidia"s performance and its next-generation Blackwell chips, which are critical for maintaining its lead in the AI chip market.
Gold has surged 28% in 2024, trading near $2,630 an ounce, driven by central bank purchases, a shift to monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs predicts gold will reach $3,000 an ounce by the end of next year, supported by ongoing demand from monetary authorities. UBS also notes that central banks are likely to continue increasing their gold reserves for diversification amid rising geopolitical risks.
China"s central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates, with the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year rate at 3.6%, as it evaluates the impact of recent stimulus measures amid a sluggish economy. Despite a recent cut in rates, economic indicators show weak industrial production and a steep decline in real estate investment, although retail sales have shown some improvement. Analysts predict continued slow growth, with Morgan Stanley forecasting around 4% growth for the next two years, while Goldman Sachs anticipates a slight deceleration in GDP growth to 4.5% by 2025.
Nvidia"s stock rose nearly 5% to $147.01, with a significant 196% increase in 2024, as it prepares to report earnings. Retail giant Target also reports, while Walmart"s stock hit a new high after solid results. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines continue to see substantial gains, with Delta up 61% in 2024. Meanwhile, three utility companies—NiSource, Sempra, and Vistra—reached all-time highs, with Vistra gaining nearly 24% in November alone.
Prominent Wall Street strategists are forecasting average stock market returns for 2025, with Goldman Sachs predicting the S&P 500 will reach 6,500, reflecting an 11% price gain. UBS anticipates a slightly lower target of 6,400, while BMO sees it at 6,700, indicating a cooling from recent impressive gains. Analysts suggest that after a strong rally, a period of slower growth may be expected as earnings estimates adjust.
UBS is considering applying for a US banking license to enhance its presence in the US wealth market, aiming to attract high-net-worth clients through its investment bank. Meanwhile, JPMorgan"s Chase UK has launched its first credit card, targeting profitability by 2025 after amassing over £20bn in deposits since its 2021 launch. Additionally, Rothschild & Co has opened a new wealth management office in Dubai, joining other financial institutions expanding in the region.
Tesla"s 5.6% surge helped the Nasdaq end a four-day losing streak, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4%. In contrast, Nvidia"s shares fell 1.3% due to overheating issues with its new chips, impacting the S&P and Nasdaq negatively. Meanwhile, Super Micro Computer"s stock soared 16% after announcing compliance measures with Nasdaq.
IndiGo and SpiceJet shares rose by 3% as domestic air traffic surpassed 500,000 passengers in a single day for the first time. Goldman Sachs has maintained a "buy" rating on IndiGo, setting a target price of Rs 4,800 per share, with air traffic growth in October and November at 10% and 11%, respectively. IndiGo"s passenger load factor (PLF) improved to 90%, up from 85.6% last year.
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